The daily melting volume of the glass industry was 157975 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%

From the perspective of the supply side, the daily melting volume of the glass industry was 157975 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%, showing that the contraction of the supply side is more obvious. However, the performance of the demand side is not optimistic, and the cumulative area of domestic housing completions from January to February fell by 16% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend. In addition, the number of glass deep-processing orders of the sample enterprises rose to 8 days month-on-month, but still decreased by 35% year-on-year, reflecting the weakness of the demand side.

The improvement of production and sales and the decline of inventories are the core drivers

Despite the weak performance on the demand side, the recent improvement in glass production and sales rates has been a key factor driving the price rebound. Since March 15, the domestic glass production and sales rate has increased significantly, with the average value exceeding 100% for 12 consecutive days, driving the inventory of glass manufacturers to stop rising and falling. Last week, the inventory of glass manufacturers fell to 40,000 tons, and this week's inventory fell by 120,000 tons again, showing the emergence of an inventory inflection point.

The continuous decline in inventory has provided confidence to the market, especially in the context of the traditional peak season of "Golden Three, Silver and Fourth", and the replenishment behavior of downstream and traders has further promoted the process of destocking. It is expected that before mid-April, the upstream inventory of glass will still decline. However, it is worth noting that despite the rebound in futures prices, spot prices were relatively flat, and the spot prices of glass in North China, Central China and East China remained stable and did not follow the rising pace of the futures market. Whether the spot price can keep up with the rise in the future will become a key factor affecting the market trend.

In the future, the trend of the glass market will depend on further changes at both ends of supply and demand. If the demand side can continue to improve and the inventory removal process accelerates, glass prices are expected to continue to rebound; Conversely, if demand recovery is less than expected, inventory pressure will reappear, and prices will face downside risks. In addition, the market also needs to pay attention to the changes in the relevant capacity policies of the glass industry, and if favorable policies are introduced, it will provide an upward driving force for the glass market.