Analysis of future glass price trend Downstream demand is gradually recovering

Analysis of future glass price trends (after April 2025)

1. Drivers of demand recovery

1. The construction industry is picking up

• The real estate policy of "guaranteed delivery" continued to advance, and the superimposed monetary easing policy (RRR and interest rate cuts) stimulated the demand for housing purchases, and the amount of glass at the completion end gradually rebounded67。
• Core markets such as Hubei have seen price increases, reflecting demand growth driven by seasonal construction starts18。

2. Resilience in demand for automobiles and home appliances

• The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 40%, and the amount of on-board glass increased by 50%; Smart home promotes the demand for electronic glass to increase by 20% year-on-year, forming a new growth point5。
• Orders from downstream processing plants increased, replenishment efforts were strengthened, and inventories declined for half a month28。

3. Photovoltaic glass incremental support

• The installed capacity of new energy has accelerated the demand for photovoltaic glass, and the capacity expansion and technological upgrading of leading enterprises have further consolidated their market position4。

Second, the supply side pressure and cost support

1. The production capacity is running at a high level

• In 2025, the daily melting capacity of float glass is expected to remain in the range of 155,000-160,000 tons, and the annual output may decline by 6.4%, but there is still a risk of excess in the resumption of production and new production plans35。
• At present, the operating rate of the industry is only 77.99%, and the low capacity utilization rate may suppress short-term supply pressure8。

2. Cost rigid support

• The price fluctuations of raw materials such as soda ash and quartz sand are superimposed on the rising cost of natural gas/electricity, and the production cost of enterprises has moved upward45。
• Stricter environmental protection policies have forced technological upgrading, and small and medium-sized enterprises are facing higher cost pressure45。

3. Price trend prediction

1. Short-term (Q2-Q3 2025).

• Prices may rise slightly due to the destocking (national inventory fell to 45 million heavy containers) and the seasonal recovery in demand, but the increase in overcapacity areas (such as the south) is limited25。
• It is necessary to be wary of the disturbance of market sentiment caused by the contango phenomenon (such as the spot premium of 04 contracts).1。

2. Medium and long-term (after Q4 2025).

• If the real estate policy continues to make efforts and the urban village reconstruction project is implemented, the demand at the completion end is expected to drive the price rebound; Conversely, the release of excess capacity may suppress the room for price recovery36。
• If the demand in the photovoltaic and automotive fields exceeds expectations, it may become a key variable to break through the balance between supply and demand4 No previous NEXT：An article to clarify the types and characteristics of curtain wall glass!